Valuation data from the IMF

• Part 1 of 4 · Data

• Part 2 of 4 · Commodities

World Economic Outlook projections, interest rates, exchange rates, prices, financial soundness indicators and reserves, published on the IMF Data portal.

Monthly Primary Commodity Prices for energy, metals and agricultural products such as coal, nickel, crude oil and palm oil, plus commodity terms-of-trade indices by country.

• Part 3 of 4 · Analysis

• Part 4 of 4 · Terms

Country and global reports

Reuse and citation

Article IV reports and Selected Issues papers on Indonesia, and the WEO, Global Financial Stability Report, Fiscal Monitor, Regional Economic Outlook and External Sector Report.

Data may be downloaded, used and redistributed with attribution to the IMF; commercial reuse needs the IMF's permission, and automated bulk downloads need explicit approval.

■ IMF data · Getting started

About IMF data and its terms of use

IMF data are free and widely trusted, but the platform changed in 2025 and the terms of use differ from OECD and Damodaran in one important respect: commercial reuse requires permission. Understand both before building inputs on IMF figures.

Where the data lives

Terms, citation and updates

Entry points: the IMF Data page links to all statistical products, and the IMF Data portal hosts the datasets, with search, filters, charts and downloads.

Reuse terms: under the IMF Copyright and Usage terms, users may download, copy, publish and distribute IMF data, provided the data are attributed to the IMF and not altered in ways that affect their accuracy.

Portal migration: since October 2025 the World Economic Outlook database and many statistical series have moved to the new portal at data.imf.org. Older links to imf.org database pages may no longer work; always start from the portal.

Commercial use: the terms ask users to request permission from the IMF (copyright@imf.org) for potential commercial reuse. Citing a WEO projection inside a client valuation report is the kind of use firms should check against their own policy.

Dataset pages: each dataset has its own page on the portal (for example WEO or Primary Commodity Prices), with metadata, release calendar, the latest vintage and download options.

Citation format: 'Source: International Monetary Fund, database name, link to the dataset', plus the edition and access date for traceability under IVS 104 para 50.01.

Quick views: the IMF DataMapper charts headline WEO indicators by country, useful for a fast check before downloading full series.

Other restrictions: automated bulk downloads and use of IMF content to train AI models need explicit permission; data are provided as is, and series not attributed to the IMF belong to third parties.

Example: for a valuation dated 31 October 2026, the valuer opens the WEO dataset, filters Indonesia and the United States, selects real GDP growth and consumer price inflation, and downloads the October 2026 vintage with the download date recorded.

Practice tip: save the downloaded file and the dataset link with each valuation. IMF series are revised with every release, and the portal shows the latest vintage by default.

■ IMF data · Projections

World Economic Outlook database

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) database is the most widely used source of consistent macroeconomic projections across countries. It covers about 190 economies, including Indonesia, with history and forecasts extending five years ahead.

What the WEO database contains

Using WEO data in valuation

Dataset: World Economic Outlook on the IMF Data portal; background and earlier releases on the WEO databases page.

Inflation inputs: projected consumer price inflation for Indonesia and the United States supports the inflation-differential conversion of a USD discount rate into IDR, and cost escalation assumptions in IDR forecasts.

Releases: two main vintages a year, in April and in September or October, alongside the WEO report; the July and January updates revise headline figures only.

Terminal growth: projected nominal GDP growth in the final WEO year is a reasonable reference point, not a target, for long-term nominal growth in the currency of the cash flows.

Variables: real GDP growth, nominal GDP in local currency and USD, GDP per capita, GDP deflator, consumer price inflation (average and end of period), unemployment, current account balance, general government revenue, expenditure and debt, among others.

Exchange rates: WEO publishes nominal GDP in both IDR and USD, from which implied exchange rate paths can be derived; treat these as technical assumptions, not exchange rate forecasts.

Horizon: history plus projections for the current year and five years ahead, a useful match for the explicit forecast period of most DCF models.

Vintage control: a valuation as at 31 March 2026 should use the October 2025 WEO, because the April 2026 release was not knowable at that date (IVS 102 para 10.04).

Example: valuing an Indonesian consumer goods company, the valuer compares management's five-year revenue growth with WEO projections of Indonesian real GDP growth and inflation, and asks management to explain growth well above nominal GDP.

Practice tip: cite the edition precisely, for example 'IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2026', and note which variable codes were used, so that reviewers can reproduce the figures.

■ IMF data · Quick reference

IMF DataMapper and country profiles

DataMapper turns WEO and other IMF datasets into interactive maps and charts. It is the quickest way to see Indonesia's headline numbers in context and to produce a market overview chart for a valuation report.

What it shows

Using it well

Tool: IMF DataMapper opens on real GDP growth from the latest WEO and covers dozens of indicators across WEO, fiscal, debt and other IMF datasets.

Headline only: DataMapper shows selected series. For modelling inputs, download the full WEO dataset so that you have exact values, units and the vintage.

Country profile: Indonesia profile in DataMapper gathers Indonesia's main indicators on one page.

Consistency: when a report uses both DataMapper charts and WEO downloads, make sure they come from the same edition.

Comparisons: select several countries or regions (ASEAN-5, emerging and developing Asia, advanced economies) to compare growth, inflation or debt paths.

Interpretation: projections are the IMF staff's baseline, not market expectations. Where market-implied data exist, such as bond yields or inflation swaps, consider both and explain the choice.

Downloads: charts and underlying data can be downloaded, with the source edition shown on each chart.

Example: if DataMapper shows Indonesian inflation projected near the Bank Indonesia target band while management assumes much higher cost inflation, the valuer asks for the specific cost drivers behind the difference.

Example: in the market overview of a property valuation report, the valuer includes a DataMapper chart of Indonesian real GDP growth against ASEAN-5, cited with the WEO edition.

Practice tip: avoid pasting charts without a source line. Add 'Source: IMF DataMapper, World Economic Outlook (edition)' below every chart.

■ IMF data · Markets

Interest rates, exchange rates and prices

The IMF's statistical datasets, formerly grouped as International Financial Statistics (IFS), provide comparable series on interest rates, exchange rates, consumer and producer prices and monetary aggregates for most countries.

What is available

Using it in a valuation

Where: search the IMF Data portal for interest rates, exchange rates, consumer price index or producer price index. Since the 2025 migration, former IFS series are organised into topic datasets.

Coverage and lags: series are compiled from national sources and may lag by a few months. For the valuation date, the national source (Bank Indonesia, BPS) is often more current; use IMF series for cross-country consistency.

Interest rates: policy rates, money market, deposit, lending and government bond yields, as reported by national authorities, including Bank Indonesia.

End of period versus average: use end-of-period exchange rates for balance sheet translation at the valuation date and averages for income items, consistent with IAS 21 practice.

Exchange rates: market rates against the US dollar (period average and end of period), plus nominal and real effective exchange rates.

Effective exchange rates: real effective rates indicate whether the rupiah is strong or weak relative to trading partners, context for export-oriented businesses.

Prices: consumer and producer price indices; producer prices help trend equipment and material costs when specific indices are lacking.

Example: valuing a nickel smelter that sells in USD and pays costs in IDR, the valuer uses end-of-period USD/IDR from the portal to translate the result and discusses the real effective rate trend as a margin risk.

Example: an Indonesian lender's average lending rate series from the portal provides a cross-check on the pre-tax cost of debt assumed for a mid-sized borrower.

Practice tip: record the exact series code and frequency. IMF datasets contain several similar series, such as different bond maturities or average versus end-of-period rates.

■ IMF data · Commodities

Primary commodity prices

The IMF Primary Commodity Prices System publishes monthly benchmark prices and indices for energy, metals, food and agricultural raw materials. For Indonesia, whose economy relies heavily on coal, palm oil and nickel, it is a key source.

What the dataset contains

Using commodity prices

Overview: IMF Primary Commodity Prices, updated monthly, with the Excel database and the technical documentation describing each benchmark.

Benchmarks, not realised prices: IMF series are international benchmarks. Adjust for quality, calorific value, grade, freight and discounts to reach the subject's realised price.

Portal version: Primary Commodity Prices dataset on the IMF Data portal, with monthly, quarterly and annual series.

Price decks: for long-life assets, combine short-term futures or analyst consensus with long-term real price assumptions; IMF history shows how far prices have swung across cycles.

Coverage: crude oil benchmarks, natural gas, coal, metals such as nickel, copper, aluminium and tin, and agricultural products including palm oil, rubber, coffee and cocoa, plus aggregate indices.

Inventory and biological assets: monthly prices support the market approach for commodities held as inventory (IVS 230 para 50.01) and for produce such as fresh fruit bunches and crude palm oil.

Terms of trade: Commodity Terms of Trade gives country-specific indices for 182 economies, showing how commodity prices affect each country's export and import prices.

Example: a palm oil plantation forecast assumes a crude palm oil price far above its ten-year average in real terms. The IMF series lets the valuer show this visually and request justification.

Example: for a coal mine valuation, the valuer compares management's price deck with the IMF's monthly coal benchmark history and the WEO commodity price assumptions, noting differences in coal quality and delivery terms.

Practice tip: state the benchmark, unit, currency and month used, for example 'IMF PCPS, palm oil, USD per metric ton, monthly average, September 2026'.

■ IMF data · Financial sector

Financial soundness and reserves data

For valuations of banks, insurers and other financial institutions, and for country risk analysis, the IMF publishes Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI) and data on the currency composition of official reserves (COFER).

Financial Soundness Indicators

Reserves and external position

Where: search 'Financial Soundness Indicators' on the IMF Data portal. Indicators are reported by national authorities using a common IMF methodology.

COFER: search 'Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves' on the portal; it shows the global share of the US dollar, euro, yuan and other currencies in reserves.

Banking indicators: regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, non-performing loans to total loans, return on assets and equity, liquid assets ratios and foreign currency exposure.

Country risk context: reserve adequacy and external debt indicators from Article IV reports help explain country risk premiums used in discount rates.

Benchmarking: Indonesian sector aggregates provide a reference for a subject bank's capital, asset quality and profitability, supporting assumptions in a dividend discount or excess return model.

Limits: FSI aggregates hide wide dispersion between banks and follow national supervisory definitions; they are context, not comparable company evidence.

Peer context: comparing Indonesia with ASEAN peers helps judge whether sector profitability is likely to persist or mean-revert.

Example: for a fintech lender, the valuer uses the national banking sector's return on equity from FSI data as an outer bound for long-term profitability assumptions.

Example: valuing a regional bank with a non-performing loan ratio twice the national aggregate, the valuer raises the cost of risk assumption and explains it with FSI data.

Practice tip: check the reporting date. FSI data are often quarterly with a lag, so the latest figure may predate the valuation date by several months.

■ IMF analysis · Indonesia

Article IV and Selected Issues on Indonesia

Each year the IMF reviews Indonesia's economy in an Article IV consultation. The staff report and accompanying Selected Issues papers are among the best independent sources for the economic narrative and risk discussion in an Indonesian valuation report.

What the reports contain

Using them in a report

Country page: Indonesia and the IMF lists Article IV reports, Selected Issues papers, press releases and data.

Narrative source: IVS 200 para 110.01 requires consideration of the economic environment. Article IV reports provide a documented, independent basis for that section.

Latest Article IV: Indonesia: 2025 Article IV Consultation (published January 2026), with the staff report, medium-term projections, risk assessment and policy recommendations.

Risk assessment: the risk assessment matrix in each report lists the main downside risks and their likelihood, helpful for scenario analysis and for explaining company-specific risk premiums.

Selected Issues: Selected Issues papers analyse specific topics in depth, such as public investment, downstreaming of natural resources, the financial sector or climate policy.

Policy context: changes in fiscal policy, tax reform, subsidies or capital flow measures discussed in the report can affect cash flows, discount rates and highest and best use.

Tables: Article IV reports contain medium-term macro tables, balance of payments, fiscal accounts and a debt sustainability analysis, often with more detail on Indonesia than the WEO database.

Example: for a valuation dated before a report's publication, the earlier Article IV and the latest press release are the knowable sources; a later report cannot be cited as evidence available at the date.

Example: in a valuation of a nickel processing company, the valuer cites the Article IV discussion of export bans and downstreaming policy as evidence of regulatory risk and opportunity.

Practice tip: quote short findings with the report number and paragraph, and avoid presenting IMF staff views as facts; they are the staff's assessment at the time of writing.

■ IMF analysis · Global

Flagship reports for the market overview

Several IMF flagship reports give the global and regional context that underpins discount rates, growth assumptions and sector outlooks. Valuers mostly use them for the market overview and to support macro assumptions.

Growth, finance and fiscal

Regional and external

World Economic Outlook: WEO reports explain the global forecast, risks and analytical chapters on topics such as commodity cycles and interest rates.

Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific REO focuses on the region, with country comparisons including Indonesia.

Global Financial Stability Report: GFSR assesses financial market risks, credit conditions and emerging market capital flows, context for equity risk premiums and credit spreads.

External Sector Report: External Sector Report assesses whether major currencies, including the rupiah, are broadly in line with fundamentals, useful context for long-term exchange rate assumptions.

Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Monitor covers public finances, tax policy and government debt, relevant for sovereign risk and tax assumptions.

Sector themes: analytical chapters often cover energy transition, commodity markets, real estate and fragmentation of trade, topics that affect specific asset classes.

Use in valuation: these reports provide citable explanations for movements in risk-free rates, risk premiums and growth outlooks between two valuation dates.

Example: valuing an export-oriented manufacturer, the valuer refers to the External Sector Report's assessment of the rupiah to explain why no long-term real appreciation is assumed.

Example: explaining a higher discount rate than last year's valuation, the valuer cites the GFSR's discussion of tighter global financial conditions and wider emerging market spreads.

Practice tip: cite the report, edition and chapter, for example 'IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026, Chapter 1', rather than 'IMF says'.

■ IMF data · Putting it together

Worked example: a coal mine in Kalimantan

This illustrative example shows how IMF sources combine in one engagement. Figures are hypothetical; always take values from the editions available at the valuation date.

Inputs from IMF sources

How they feed the valuation

Macro baseline: from the latest WEO knowable at the date, take Indonesian real GDP growth (say 5.0%) and inflation (say 2.8%), and US inflation (say 2.2%).

Price deck: combine near-term futures with a long-term real price informed by the IMF history; flex prices in scenarios because coal prices are highly cyclical.

Commodity history: from IMF Primary Commodity Prices, extract the monthly coal benchmark for the past fifteen years to show the price cycle and current position.

Discount rate: build in USD and convert to IDR using the inflation differential (1 + r) × (1.028 ÷ 1.022) − 1, or keep the model in USD if revenues and most costs are USD-linked.

Exchange rate: from the IMF Data portal, take the end-of-period USD/IDR rate at the valuation date to translate the USD-based result.

Economic life: consider energy transition risk highlighted in IMF reports when setting the mine life or terminal assumptions, rather than assuming perpetual operation.

Country narrative: from the latest Article IV report, summarise policy risks relevant to coal: export obligations, royalty changes and energy transition commitments.

Reconciliation: compare the DCF result with recent transactions for Indonesian coal assets and explain the gap.

Example: the valuer documents each input in an input register with dataset, edition, series, unit and access date.

Practice tip: where IMF data are reproduced in a client report for a fee, check your firm's position on the IMF's request for permission for commercial reuse.

■ IMF data · Quality control

Common pitfalls when using IMF data

These are the issues reviewers, auditors and tax examiners most often raise when IMF data appear in valuation reports.

Input errors

Documentation and judgement

Wrong vintage: using a WEO edition or revised series published after the valuation date.

Treating projections as facts: IMF projections are a baseline; explain how the adopted assumptions relate to it and to market evidence.

Broken links: citing old imf.org database pages that moved to the IMF Data portal in 2025, so readers cannot find the source.

Untraceable citations: 'IMF data' without dataset, edition, series code and access date falls short of IVS 104 para 50.01.

Benchmark mismatch: using an international commodity benchmark as the subject's realised price without quality, freight or discount adjustments.

Ignoring terms: reproducing large IMF tables in a commercial deliverable without considering the IMF's permission requirement for commercial reuse.

Average versus end of period: translating a valuation at the period-average exchange rate instead of the rate at the valuation date.

Over-reliance on aggregates: national figures such as banking sector ratios or GDP growth do not replace subject-specific evidence.

Example: a valuation as at 30 June uses the October WEO of the same year, which was published four months later. The reviewer rejects the growth assumption as not knowable at the date.

Practice tip: keep one input register per engagement with the source, edition, series, unit, value, access date and file location for every macro input.

✱ Source and attribution

Data by the IMF, used under its terms

All datasets and reports on this page are published by the International Monetary Fund on imf.org and the IMF Data portal, and are subject to the IMF Copyright and Usage terms, which require attribution and ask for permission for commercial reuse. Valuvix is not affiliated with the IMF and links to the original sources. Figures in the examples are illustrative; always use the edition available at your valuation date.